This is a weekly feature of NFL betting picks that will a running contest for more correct picks between myself (The Danimal) and Dr. Pachinks. I’ll somewhat poorly research my picks and write my justifications for them in the blog. Dr. Pachinks on the other hand will simply be given the game and the line and immediately go with his gut. May be the best man win.
Lines as of 9/18 10:30 pm EDT via Sportsbetting.ag
Thursday 8:25 pm EDT
Kansas City Chiefs @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles (-3)
My Pick: Eagles (-3)
Andy Reid returns to Philadelphia riding high with the much improved Chiefs. Alex Smith has been his usual steady but not game changing self at the quarterback position and Jamal Charles has been passable at running back averaging 66 ypg on the ground. The Eagle offense under Chip Kelly has certainly been high flying averaging 31.5 ppg and 477 total yards. The Philly defense on the other hand has been less than stellar allowing 301 ypg through the air and another 176 ypg on the ground. I don’t think the Eagle D will play much better but I don’t see Smith and Charles putting together enough big plays to take down a great Eagle offense.
Dr. Pachinks Pick: Eagles (-3)
Sunday 1:00 pm EDT
Green Bay Packers @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Packers (-3)
My Pick: Packers (-3)
The Packers and Bengals both sit at 1-1 and will be looking get on a roll here in week three. The Bengals D has been tough to run on allowing only 63 ypg but that shouldn’t slow down what has been a prolific Green Bay offense averaging 483 total yards per game with 382 ypg coming in the passing attack. The Bengals will certainly have opportunities to score in the passing attack as the Packers pass defense has been abysmal and the Bengals have of the league’s premier wideouts in AJ Green. The Bengals will need a big game from Andy Dalton to win this week and I’m just not sure he’s on that level quite yet which is why I’m taking the Packers to cover.
Dr. Pachinks’ Pick: Packers (-3)
Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints (-7)
My Pick: Saints (-7)
After close wins for both the Saints and Cardinals last week against the Bucs and Lions respectively, I don’t see a close game for these two teams this week. Although New Orleans is currently averaging 19.5 ppg, I see a big game through the air for Brees against a Cards D that’s allowing almost 300 passing yards per game. The Cardinals offense has looked better under Carson Palmer and this could very well turn high scoring (a backdoor by Arizona wouldn’t shock me) but I think New Orleans’ homefield advantage will ultimately be too much for the Cardinals to overcome.
Dr. Pachinks’ Pick: Saints (-7)
St. Louis Rams @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys (-3 1/2)
My Pick: Cowboys (-3 1/2)
St. Louis has certainly put up yardage through the air this year (although some of it coming late against ATL last week) and I expect that to continue against a less than stellar Cowboy’s pass D. Although Dallas did struggle to score against the Chiefs, I see a major turnaround for Romo and Co. against a far below average Rams D. Should have a good deal of scoring but the Cowboy’s should pull it out by 7 at home.
Dr. Pachinks’ Pick: Rams (+3 1/2)
Cleveland Browns @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings (-6)
My Pick: Vikings (-6)
As we covered earlier this week has been a disaster for the Browns. That being said their run defense been stingy allowing only about 60 ypg through the first two weeks and they may slow AP down. But that’s all they’ll do, the pass defense for the Browns has been somewhat suspect and I believe Ponder is a serviceable enough QB to get the job done. The pain reason for this pick and why I’m confident that the Vikings will cover, is the Browns simple inability to score points. Through the first two weeks the Browns have scored a total of 16 points and don’t expect that total to sky rocket with Brian Hoyer at QB and starting RB Trent Richardson lost to trade.
Dr. Pachinks’ Pick: Vikings (-6)
San Diego Chargers @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans (-3)
My Pick: Titans (-3)
Phillip Rivers has been off to a hot start for the Chargers throwing 7 touchdowns through the first two weeks of play. Although I do see the Titans D that has been very respectable thus far to slow Rivers somewhat, I still expect him to play well just not quite well enough to win. I expect the Titans to turn this into a slower paced hard nosed affair and outlast the Chargers in much more low scoring affair than San Diego’s first two games.
Dr. Pachinks’ Pick: Chargers (+3)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New England Patriots
Line: Patriots (-7)
My Pick: Patriots (-7)
Although the Patriots are 2-0 they have struggled on offense as Tom Brady adjusts to life without Wes Welker and with a slew of new young receivers who have had a tendency for drops. That being said New England is great at home and as much as they’ve struggled they could be buoyed by the return of excellent TE Rob Gronkowski who is currently 50-50 for week three. Tampa Bay has been abhorrent on offense averaging only 262 total ypg and I can’t see them scoring much on this New England defense. Amendola will be out again so look for Edelman to be Brady’s main target in route to another victory.
Dr. Pachinks’ Pick: Patriots (-7)
Detroit Lions @ Washington Redskins
Line: Redskins (-2 1/2)
My Pick: Washington (-2 1/2)
In order for Washington to win this week they’ll need a tremendous game from Robert Griffin III. Washington defense has played very poorly giving up a league worst 512 ypg and has left RG3 and the offense in a position of playing constantly from behind. This may be a problem against a Detroit team averaging about 400 yards of total offense and 27.5 points per game but if the RG3 and Alfred Morris can get rolling early get a hungry ‘Skins crowd behind them and establish the pace of the game I see Washington pulling out a close on with a lot of fireworks.
Dr. Pachinks’ Pick: Redskins (-2 1/2)
New York Giants @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers (-1)
My Pick: Giants (+1)
Both teams have started 0-2 and need to change their fortunes quickly. The Giants defense has very struggled to pressure opposing as Jason Pierre Paul readjusting to the game after surgery which has lead to them allowing 391 ypg to opposing aerial attacks. Cam Newton certainly have a better day through the air than he has in previous weeks but I expect Eli Manning to control the game and make the big the Giants need to turn their season around.
Dr. Pachinks’ Pick: Giants (+1)
Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Texans (-2 1/2)
My Pick: Texans (-2 1/2)
After losing Ed Reed and Cary Williams to free agency the Ravens have struggled against the pass allowing 320 ypg as well as a league record tying performance7 touchdown passes against Peyton Manning and the Broncos. They did improve against lowly Cleveland but I’d look for Houston to have a good day offensively with or without star wideout Andre Johnson. With Baltimore’s depleted roster they will need Joe Flacco to vastly outplay Matt Schaub this week but I just don’t see that happening. Texans should win going away late.
Dr. Pachinks’ Picks: Ravens (+2 1/2)
Sunday 4:05 pm EDT
Atlanta Falcons @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Dolphins (-1)
My Pick: Dolphins (-1)
The Dolphins have started 2-0 and had a solid win on the road last week in Indianapolis. This coupled with an improved defense and homefield advantage is enough to convince me that Miami will win this week. Atlanta’s offense has been impressive but their defense has not allowing a great deal of late points and yardage to the Rams in a game that never should have been that close and I believe this will allow Ryan Tannehill to make enough plays to lead the to 3-0.
Dr. Pachinks’ Pick: Falcons (+1)
Sunday 4:25 pm EDT
Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets
Line: Jets (-1)
My Pick: Bills (+1)
Both teams are coming off of close wins in week two with the Bills pulling out an especially emotional last second win over Carolina for QB EJ Manuel’s first career victory. The Jets defense seems to be back on track allowing opponents under 20 ppg and under 250 ypg on offense. I believe this match up will be decided by the two young QBs, Manuel and Geno Smith and although Smith has showed a few flashes of brilliance through the first two games to give Jets’ fans hope for the future, Manuel has been more polished and has better weapons. It will be close and will get sloppy but I see Manuel and the Bills pulling it out again.
Dr. Pachinks’ Pick: Bills (+1)
Indianapolis Colts @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers (-10)
My Pick: Colts (+10)
The 49ers are coming off of an embarrassing loss to divisional rival Seattle and Colts are coming off of a close loss at home against Miami. This will Luck’s first game back in the Bay Arena since playing for 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh at Stanford and I believe that he will impress. The addition of RB Trent Richardson, if he plays, should bolster the Colts running attack allow them to keep this game within reach. I believe both offenses with score points this week as neither defense has played particularly spectacularly this year allowing 361 (IND) and 35l (SF) ypg and over 20 ppg. Look for the 49ers to win this game but I don’t feel that they will cover.
Dr. Pachinks’ Pick: Colts (+10)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Seahawks (-19)
My Pick: Seahawks (-19)
This line is high but justifiably so. The Jacksonville offense is simply putrid and is easily the worst in the league. Combine that with a Seattle defense that just held the 49ers to 3 points as well as the raucous crowd that Blaine Gabbert will face at CenturyLink Field and this has all the makings for a shutout with Seattle winning very big.
Dr. Pachinks’ Pick: Seahawks -19)
Sunday 8:30 pm EDT
Chicago Bears @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Bears (-2 1/2)
My Pick: Bears (-2 1/2)
The Bears are finding ways to win this season and I believe that trend will continue this weekend in Pittsburgh. The Steelers have struggled on offense thus far and have not been able to find a consistent rhythm or pull out close games. If not for Ben Roethlisberger in the passing game, this team would struggle even more to score points (9.5ppg) as they have no running game to speak of. Pittsburgh is a tough place to play and their defense may make some plays to keep this game close but Cutler, Marshall, and the Bears will be too much this week and will continue their winning ways.
Dr. Pachinks’ Pick: Bears (-2 1/2)
Monday 8:40 pm EDT
Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos
Line: Broncos (-15)
My Pick:Broncos (-15)
The Broncos offense is on fire averaging 463 ypg and 45 ppg. There’s no reason to continue that trend won’t continue at home against the Raiders. The Broncos defense has also only allowed 41 ypg to opposing rushing attacks which will stymie the Raiders main threat on offense. Look for the Broncos to win another one big.
Dr. Pachinks’ Pick: Oakland (+15)
Please... Respond 
[…] NFL Picks of Week Three […]